Problems of Assessing the Risk of Contact by Extraterrestrial Intelligence

The Fermi paradox refers to the apparent contradiction between the absence of evidence for extraterrestrial life and intelligence, and the prima facie case that there ought to many instances of such intelligence in the galaxy. We lack the astrophysical and astrobiological data for resolving the paradox at this time. But this lack of data also limits us from rigorously assessing the risks and benefits of potential contact. Otherworldly civilizations may possess technological capacity far in advance of our own, and will have motives unknown to us. Is it prudent to believe that contact by extraterrestrial intelligence is an existential risk?

In “Policy options for the radio detectability of Earth,” Jacob Haqq-Misra discusses the risk associated with contact by extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI), and what the policy implications are for messaging extraterrestrial intelligence (METI). “The METI risk problem refers to the uncertain outcome of sending transmissions into space with the intention of messaging [ETI]. […] The potential risk [for instance, existential risk to human civilization] associated with METI has led some researchers to consider the possibility of a moratorium on METI activities. […] [W]ould contact with extraterrestrial intelligence cause net benefits or harm for humanity?”

Haqq-Misra attempts to demonstrate that the uncertainty associated with METI is “undecidable by proving that the METI risk problem reduces to the halting problem.” The halting problem refers to the problem of deciding whether a Turing machine (a mathematical model of computation, which for our purposes we can think of as a concept for a personal computer) will conclude its programming in a finite period of time given some arbitrary program and input. The halting problem is undecidable, which means it is not determinable whether an arbitrary computer program will halt, or run forever, with merely a description of the program and its inputs. I believe Haqq-Misra’s proof is incorrect for at least two reasons, one of which has to do with overreaching the conclusions of the halting problem. The halting problem is undecidable for arbitrary computer programs, but not necessarily any given program. In…

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